Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 21.547311 23.395494 25.384915 27.695105 30.316008 33.211256 36.671123
2025-12-21 18.997730 21.612140 24.624040 28.390409 33.031612 38.641849 46.060219
2025-12-28 16.708605 19.667248 23.252472 28.000157 34.254008 42.411385 54.217797
2026-01-04 15.151822 18.330317 22.344119 27.921672 35.707538 46.587966 63.750025
2026-01-11 14.065705 17.416783 21.801203 28.158196 37.512648 51.462910 75.420819
2026-01-18 13.026824 16.432238 21.016810 27.900680 38.492326 55.210613 86.243914
2026-01-25 12.208302 15.652539 20.408214 27.778195 39.594767 59.282836 98.763935
2026-02-01 11.542443 15.016352 19.923936 27.753382 40.801798 63.708142 113.362192
2026-02-08 10.940994 14.416721 19.426806 27.630148 41.793047 67.903996 128.981523
2026-02-15 10.405982 13.869184 18.952604 27.475793 42.681971 72.056956 146.168699
2026-02-22 9.924277 13.363936 18.496518 27.291566 43.471148 76.154878 165.069517
2026-03-01 9.522628 12.950020 18.145940 27.240465 44.486658 80.940442 188.339763
2026-03-08 9.123701 12.526209 17.764417 27.126255 45.426128 85.944268 215.947290
2026-03-15 8.950839 12.439941 17.919287 27.983112 48.467048 96.803309 272.332420
2026-03-22 8.569615 12.003633 17.465938 27.678629 49.031061 101.655780 310.652576
2026-03-29 8.267487 11.675207 17.168800 27.635149 50.157426 108.382777 364.866007
2026-04-05 8.039413 11.451919 17.032548 27.883044 51.981729 117.730316 445.615470
2026-04-12 7.747135 11.107888 16.663790 27.635439 52.608372 123.727617 517.669323
2026-04-19 7.496811 10.819881 16.374008 27.517340 53.531943 131.053604 614.144059
2026-04-26 7.278360 10.573642 16.142026 27.494042 54.691652 139.682324 744.011597
2026-05-03 7.060181 10.317187 15.875531 27.372952 55.584185 147.783778 897.030603
2026-05-10 6.851629 10.067373 15.606156 27.220852 56.375106 155.912930 1086.296875
2026-05-17 6.651897 9.823787 15.334275 27.039141 57.061905 164.017212 1321.844652